Edmonton Oilers at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-03-14 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 1 - 2 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 54.0%

EDM: 46.0%

Expected Goals

NYI: 2.99

EDM: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

EDM

Calvin Pickard - 4-5-2 | 0.874 SV% | 3.69 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	35	33	2	94.3%	3.74	2	1.74
EDM	Calvin Pickard	25	24	1	96.0%	1.77	0	0.77

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • NYI at home vs EDM: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-15	EDM 0 - 1 NYI	NYI	EDM
2025-10-16	NYI 4 - 2 EDM	NYI	EDM
2025-03-14	NYI 1 - 2 EDM	EDM	NYI
2024-11-12	EDM 4 - 3 NYI	EDM	EDM
2023-12-19	NYI 3 - 1 EDM	NYI	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	7	0	0.26
1	EDM	20	1	1.61
2	NYI	17	0	0.76
2	EDM	16	0	1.26
3	NYI	9	0	0.58
3	EDM	11	0	0.46
4	NYI	3	0	0.17
4	EDM	3	1	0.41

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 1 - 2 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1