Edmonton Oilers at New York Islanders NHL Predictions
2025-03-14 • UBS Arena
New York Islanders 1 - 2 Edmonton Oilers
🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYI: 60.1%
EDM: 39.9%
Expected Goals
NYI: 2.98
EDM: 2.80
Total Goals
Median: 5.8
Over 5.5: 53%
Over 6.5: 36%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 20-13-2 | 0.916 SV% | 2.44 GAA
EDM
Tristan Jarry - 15-7-2 | 0.890 SV% | 3.18 GAA
| Stat | NYI | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.906 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.930 | 0.841 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 1.000 | 0.919 |
| GAA | 2.55 | 2.73 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYI at home vs EDM: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-15 | EDM 0 - 1 NYI | NYI | EDM |
| 2025-10-16 | NYI 4 - 2 EDM | NYI | NYI |
| 2025-03-14 | NYI 1 - 2 EDM | EDM | NYI |
| 2024-11-12 | EDM 4 - 3 NYI | EDM | EDM |
| 2023-12-19 | NYI 3 - 1 EDM | NYI | NYI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 08:46 | EDM | Goal |
| 3 | 01:21 | NYI | Goal |
| 4 | 03:53 | EDM | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 60.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 3.0
Expected: 5.8
Score Breakdown
New York Islanders 1 - 2 Edmonton Oilers
Expected: 3.0 - 2.8