Vegas Golden Knights at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions
2025-03-15 • KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres 4 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 58.2%
VGK: 41.8%
Expected Goals
BUF: 3.05
VGK: 3.16
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 58%
Over 6.5: 41%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BUF
Alex Lyon - 14-8-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.72 GAA
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-6-6 | 0.895 SV% | 2.53 GAA
| Stat | BUF | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.895 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.934 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.50 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 75% • BUF at home vs VGK: 2-0
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-15 | BUF 4 - 3 VGK | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-01-04 | VGK 3 - 1 BUF | VGK | VGK |
| 2024-03-02 | BUF 7 - 2 VGK | BUF | BUF |
| 2023-12-15 | VGK 2 - 5 BUF | BUF | VGK |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12:07 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 12:13 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 12:06 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 19:46 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 17:27 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 09:53 | BUF | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | BUF | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | BUF | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | BUF | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 58.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Buffalo Sabres 4 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights
Expected: 3.1 - 3.2