Vegas Golden Knights at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions
2025-03-15 • KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres 4 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights
🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 44.6%
VGK: 55.4%
Expected Goals
BUF: 2.89
VGK: 3.13
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 54%
Over 6.5: 41%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BUF
Alex Lyon - 20-10-4 | 0.906 SV% | 2.77 GAA
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-10-6 | 0.893 SV% | 2.59 GAA
| Stat | BUF | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.895 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.847 | 0.879 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.931 | 0.893 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.50 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • BUF at home vs VGK: 3-0
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | VGK 0 - 2 BUF | BUF | VGK |
| 2026-03-03 | BUF 3 - 2 VGK | BUF | VGK |
| 2025-03-15 | BUF 4 - 3 VGK | BUF | VGK |
| 2025-01-04 | VGK 3 - 1 BUF | VGK | VGK |
| 2024-03-02 | BUF 7 - 2 VGK | BUF | BUF |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12:07 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 12:06 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 12:13 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 09:53 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 17:27 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 19:46 | BUF | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | BUF | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | BUF | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | BUF | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 55.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Buffalo Sabres 4 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights
Expected: 2.9 - 3.1
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