Vegas Golden Knights at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-03-15 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 46.0%

VGK: 54.0%

Expected Goals

BUF: 2.94

VGK: 3.23

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 42%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • BUF at home vs VGK: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-17	VGK 0 - 2 BUF	BUF	VGK
2026-03-03	BUF 3 - 2 VGK	BUF	VGK
2025-03-15	BUF 4 - 3 VGK	BUF	VGK
2025-01-04	VGK 3 - 1 BUF	VGK	VGK
2024-03-02	BUF 7 - 2 VGK	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	17	0	0.79
1	VGK	10	0	0.50
2	BUF	16	0	0.66
2	VGK	8	1	0.49
3	BUF	18	0	0.73
3	VGK	12	1	1.04
4	BUF	3	0	0.25
4	VGK	4	0	0.30
5	BUF	3	2	1.52
5	VGK	3	1	0.53

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 2.9 - 3.2