New Jersey Devils at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-03-15 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 7 - 3 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 49.7%

NJD: 50.3%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.22

NJD: 3.13

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	27	24	3	88.9%	2.87	0	-0.13
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	24	17	7	70.8%	3.83	4	-3.17

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 82% • PIT at home vs NJD: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	NJD 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-02-26	PIT 4 - 1 NJD	PIT	PIT
2026-01-08	PIT 4 - 1 NJD	PIT	PIT
2025-11-08	NJD 2 - 1 PIT	NJD	NJD
2025-04-11	NJD 2 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	13	2	1.05
1	NJD	14	0	0.81
2	PIT	15	1	1.39
2	NJD	11	0	0.86
3	PIT	12	1	1.40
3	NJD	20	0	1.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 7 - 3 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1