Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2025-03-15 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 2 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

BOS: 48.4%

TBL: 51.6%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.15

TBL: 3.31

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 43%

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	40	34	6	85.0%	6.99	9	0.99
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	12	10	2	83.3%	1.16	0	-0.84

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 75% • BOS at home vs TBL: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	BOS 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-04	TBL 3 - 1 BOS	TBL	TBL
2026-02-01	TBL 6 - 5 BOS	TBL	TBL
2025-10-13	BOS 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	BOS
2025-03-15	BOS 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	12	0	0.83
1	TBL	19	3	1.61
2	BOS	0	0	0.00
2	TBL	35	2	2.63
3	BOS	8	0	0.33
3	TBL	18	4	2.76

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 2 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3