Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2025-03-15 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 2 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

BOS: 51.1%

TBL: 48.9%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.04

TBL: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BOS at home vs TBL: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	BOS 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-04	TBL 3 - 1 BOS	TBL	TBL
2026-02-01	TBL 6 - 5 BOS	TBL	TBL
2025-10-13	BOS 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	BOS
2025-03-15	BOS 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	BOS

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	12	0	0.83
1	TBL	19	3	1.61
2	BOS	0	0	0.00
2	TBL	35	2	2.63
3	BOS	8	0	0.33
3	TBL	18	4	2.76

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 2 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.0 - 3.0