Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-03-15 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 4 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 50.8%

OTT: 49.2%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.53

OTT: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 51%

Over 6.5: 36%

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	25	21	4	84.0%	3.17	3	-0.83
OTT	Linus Ullmark	23	21	2	91.3%	2.57	1	0.57

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 71% • TOR at home vs OTT: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	OTT 3 - 1 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-03-21	OTT 5 - 2 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-02-28	TOR 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-27	TOR 7 - 5 OTT	TOR	OTT
2025-05-01	OTT 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	11	0	0.44
1	OTT	15	0	0.35
2	TOR	9	0	0.66
2	OTT	13	1	0.78
3	TOR	21	1	1.48
3	OTT	12	2	2.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 4 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0