Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-03-15 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 0 - 5 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 53.5%

CAR: 46.5%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.96

CAR: 3.23

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

CAR

Pyotr Kochetkov - 6-2-0 | 0.899 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Samuel Ersson	30	25	5	83.3%	3.35	2	-1.65
CAR	Pyotr Kochetkov	26	26	0	100.0%	2.26	0	2.26

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • PHI at home vs CAR: 1-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-09	PHI 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-05-07	PHI 1 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-05-04	CAR 3 - 2 PHI	CAR	CAR
2026-05-02	CAR 3 - 0 PHI	CAR	CAR
2026-04-13	PHI 3 - 2 CAR	PHI	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	15	0	1.11
1	CAR	21	2	1.52
2	PHI	14	0	0.70
2	CAR	15	0	1.20
3	PHI	8	0	0.45
3	CAR	14	0	0.64

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 0 - 5 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2