Vegas Golden Knights at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2025-03-16 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 0 Vegas Golden Knights

Win Probability

DET: 53.5%

VGK: 46.5%

Expected Goals

DET: 2.75

VGK: 3.25

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DET at home vs VGK: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-04	DET 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	DET
2025-11-04	VGK 1 - 0 DET	VGK	VGK
2025-03-22	VGK 6 - 3 DET	VGK	VGK
2025-03-16	DET 3 - 0 VGK	DET	DET
2024-03-09	VGK 5 - 3 DET	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	13	0	1.20
1	VGK	10	0	0.43
2	DET	17	1	0.73
2	VGK	12	0	0.47
3	DET	14	1	1.07
3	VGK	12	0	0.69

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 0 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 2.8 - 3.2