Vegas Golden Knights at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2025-03-16 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 0 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 48.4%

VGK: 51.6%

Expected Goals

DET: 2.96

VGK: 2.80

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

DET

P. Mrazek

VGK

Ilya Samsonov - 16-9-4 | 0.891 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	P. Mrazek	18	18	0	100.0%	1.59	0	1.59
VGK	Ilya Samsonov	27	24	3	88.9%	3.00	2	0.00

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DET at home vs VGK: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-04	DET 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-11-04	VGK 1 - 0 DET	VGK	VGK
2025-03-22	VGK 6 - 3 DET	VGK	VGK
2025-03-16	DET 3 - 0 VGK	DET	VGK
2024-03-09	VGK 5 - 3 DET	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	13	0	1.20
1	VGK	10	0	0.43
2	DET	17	1	0.73
2	VGK	12	0	0.47
3	DET	14	1	1.07
3	VGK	12	0	0.69

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 0 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.0 - 2.8