Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2025-03-16 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 3 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

COL: 60.1%

DAL: 39.9%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.46

DAL: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Scott Wedgewood	22	19	3	86.4%	3.12	5	0.12
DAL	Jake Oettinger	35	31	4	88.6%	3.43	3	-0.57

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • COL at home vs DAL: 5-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	DAL 0 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-18	COL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	COL
2026-03-06	DAL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-10-11	COL 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	COL
2025-05-03	DAL 4 - 2 COL	DAL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	23	2	1.50
1	DAL	5	1	0.80
2	COL	20	0	0.70
2	DAL	10	0	0.81
3	COL	13	1	1.11
3	DAL	18	4	1.50
4	COL	1	0	0.12
4	DAL	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 3 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.5 - 3.1