Edmonton Oilers at New York Rangers NHL Predictions
2025-03-16 • Madison Square Garden
New York Rangers 1 - 3 Edmonton Oilers
🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYR: 55.4%
EDM: 44.6%
Expected Goals
NYR: 2.80
EDM: 3.30
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 59%
Over 6.5: 41%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYR
Igor Shesterkin - 17-12-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.45 GAA
EDM
Tristan Jarry - 15-7-2 | 0.890 SV% | 3.18 GAA
| Stat | NYR | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.906 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.942 | 0.841 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.930 | — |
| GAA | 2.51 | 2.73 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 17% • NYR at home vs EDM: 0-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-30 | EDM 3 - 4 NYR | NYR | EDM |
| 2025-10-14 | NYR 0 - 2 EDM | EDM | NYR |
| 2025-03-16 | NYR 1 - 3 EDM | EDM | NYR |
| 2024-11-23 | EDM 6 - 2 NYR | EDM | EDM |
| 2023-12-22 | NYR 3 - 4 EDM | EDM | NYR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19:17 | EDM | Goal |
| 2 | 05:00 | NYR | Goal |
| 3 | 06:09 | EDM | Goal |
| 3 | 16:35 | EDM | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 55.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 4.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
New York Rangers 1 - 3 Edmonton Oilers
Expected: 2.8 - 3.3