Buffalo Sabres at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions
2025-03-17 • TD Garden
Boston Bruins 2 - 3 Buffalo Sabres
🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BOS: 51.4%
BUF: 48.6%
Expected Goals
BOS: 3.02
BUF: 3.20
Total Goals
Median: 6.1
Over 5.5: 59%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BOS
Jeremy Swayman - 31-18-4 | 0.907 SV% | 2.71 GAA
BUF
Alex Lyon - 20-10-4 | 0.906 SV% | 2.77 GAA
| Stat | BOS | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.903 | 0.906 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.904 | 0.847 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.955 | 0.885 |
| GAA | 2.84 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • BOS at home vs BUF: 3-5
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | BUF | ||
| 2026-05-01 | BOS 1 - 4 BUF | BUF | BUF |
| 2026-04-28 | BUF 1 - 2 BOS | BOS | BUF |
| 2026-04-26 | BOS 1 - 6 BUF | BUF | BUF |
| 2026-04-23 | BOS 1 - 3 BUF | BUF | BUF |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 51.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Boston Bruins 2 - 3 Buffalo Sabres
Expected: 3.0 - 3.2
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