Calgary Flames at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2025-03-17 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 6 - 2 Calgary Flames
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 56.0%
CGY: 44.0%
Expected Goals
TOR: 3.43
CGY: 2.71
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 56%
Over 6.5: 41%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 23-29-3 | 0.899 SV% | 3.01 GAA
| Stat | TOR | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.914 | 0.901 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.863 | 0.904 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.933 | 0.879 |
| GAA | 2.74 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TOR at home vs CGY: 3-0
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-02 | CGY 2 - 4 TOR | TOR | CGY |
| 2025-10-28 | TOR 4 - 3 CGY | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-03-17 | TOR 6 - 2 CGY | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-02-04 | CGY 3 - 6 TOR | TOR | CGY |
| 2024-01-18 | CGY 3 - 4 TOR | TOR | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:47 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 19:13 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 01:39 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 09:34 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 15:41 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 18:54 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 03:03 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 19:12 | TOR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 56.0%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 6 - 2 Calgary Flames
Expected: 3.4 - 2.7
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