Calgary Flames at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-03-17 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 6 - 2 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

TOR: 50.4%

CGY: 49.6%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.42

CGY: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 5.5

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 43%

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Joseph Woll	26	24	2	92.3%	2.19	2	0.19
CGY	Dustin Wolf	29	23	6	79.3%	3.06	5	-2.94

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TOR at home vs CGY: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-02	CGY 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	CGY
2025-10-28	TOR 4 - 3 CGY	TOR	TOR
2025-03-17	TOR 6 - 2 CGY	TOR	TOR
2025-02-04	CGY 3 - 6 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-01-18	CGY 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	18	3	1.57
1	CGY	14	0	0.58
2	TOR	15	2	1.29
2	CGY	12	1	0.74
3	TOR	5	0	0.20
3	CGY	18	1	0.88

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 6 - 2 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.4 - 3.2