Calgary Flames at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-03-17 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 6 - 2 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

TOR: 53.0%

CGY: 47.0%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.47

CGY: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • TOR at home vs CGY: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-02	CGY 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	CGY
2025-10-28	TOR 4 - 3 CGY	TOR	CGY
2025-03-17	TOR 6 - 2 CGY	TOR	TOR
2025-02-04	CGY 3 - 6 TOR	TOR	CGY
2024-01-18	CGY 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	18	3	1.57
1	CGY	14	0	0.58
2	TOR	15	2	1.29
2	CGY	12	1	0.74
3	TOR	5	0	0.20
3	CGY	18	1	0.88

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 6 - 2 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.5 - 3.2