Ottawa Senators at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-03-18 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 6 - 3 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 44.0%

OTT: 56.0%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.79

OTT: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • MTL at home vs OTT: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-11	OTT 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	OTT
2026-01-17	OTT 5 - 6 MTL	MTL	OTT
2025-12-02	MTL 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-01	MTL 4 - 3 OTT	MTL	MTL
2025-04-11	OTT 5 - 2 MTL	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	14	1	1.12
1	OTT	13	1	0.96
2	MTL	14	1	1.20
2	OTT	13	2	1.24
3	MTL	17	3	2.64
3	OTT	6	1	0.43

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 6 - 3 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 2.8 - 3.2