Calgary Flames at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2025-03-18 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 1 - 2 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (70% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 70.0%

CGY: 30.0%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.07

CGY: 2.41

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 46%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	35	33	2	94.3%	3.01	0	1.01
CGY	Dan Vladar	13	12	1	92.3%	1.82	0	0.82

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • NYR at home vs CGY: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-10	NYR 4 - 0 CGY	NYR	NYR
2025-10-26	CGY 5 - 1 NYR	CGY	CGY
2025-03-18	NYR 1 - 2 CGY	CGY	NYR
2024-11-21	CGY 3 - 2 NYR	CGY	CGY
2024-02-12	NYR 2 - 0 CGY	NYR	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	NYR	12	0.71
1	CGY	18	1.15
2	NYR	8	0.30
2	CGY	14	0.96
3	NYR	15	0.80
3	CGY	14	0.90

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 70.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.5

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 1 - 2 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.1 - 2.4