New York Islanders at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions
2025-03-18 • PPG Paints Arena
Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 4 New York Islanders
🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PIT: 59.8%
NYI: 40.2%
Expected Goals
PIT: 3.04
NYI: 2.98
Total Goals
Median: 5.7
Over 5.5: 52%
Over 6.5: 40%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 19-12-5 | 0.890 SV% | 2.79 GAA
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 20-13-2 | 0.916 SV% | 2.44 GAA
| Stat | PIT | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.888 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.863 | 0.930 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.830 | 0.873 |
| GAA | 2.91 | 2.55 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • PIT at home vs NYI: 3-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-03 | NYI 5 - 4 PIT | NYI | NYI |
| 2025-10-09 | PIT 4 - 3 NYI | PIT | PIT |
| 2025-03-18 | PIT 2 - 4 NYI | NYI | PIT |
| 2024-12-29 | PIT 3 - 2 NYI | PIT | PIT |
| 2024-12-28 | NYI 6 - 3 PIT | NYI | NYI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19:45 | PIT | Goal |
| 1 | 04:40 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 18:28 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 13:08 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 05:34 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 00:17 | PIT | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 59.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 4 New York Islanders
Expected: 3.0 - 3.0