Detroit Red Wings at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-03-18 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 4 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

Win Probability

WSH: 53.3%

DET: 46.7%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.19

DET: 3.13

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 100% • WSH at home vs DET: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	DET 3 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-12-21	DET 3 - 2 WSH	DET	DET
2025-12-20	WSH 2 - 5 DET	DET	DET
2025-03-18	WSH 4 - 1 DET	WSH	WSH
2025-03-07	WSH 5 - 2 DET	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	20	1	1.20
1	DET	13	3	1.51
2	WSH	14	0	0.91
2	DET	16	1	0.98
3	WSH	12	2	1.64
3	DET	13	0	0.68

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 4 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1