Detroit Red Wings at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-03-18 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 4 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

Win Probability

WSH: 59.6%

DET: 40.4%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.24

DET: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

DET

P. Mrazek

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	24	23	1	95.8%	3.17	4	2.17
DET	P. Mrazek	26	22	4	84.6%	3.75	3	-0.25

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WSH at home vs DET: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	DET 3 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-12-21	DET 3 - 2 WSH	DET	WSH
2025-12-20	WSH 2 - 5 DET	DET	WSH
2025-03-18	WSH 4 - 1 DET	WSH	WSH
2025-03-07	WSH 5 - 2 DET	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	20	1	1.20
1	DET	13	3	1.51
2	WSH	14	0	0.91
2	DET	16	1	0.98
3	WSH	12	2	1.64
3	DET	13	0	0.68

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 4 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.2 - 2.8