Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-03-19 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 1 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Win (64% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 35.7%

COL: 64.3%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.53

COL: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 46%

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Joseph Woll	39	38	1	97.4%	3.21	1	2.21
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	26	24	2	92.3%	4.22	5	2.22

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TOR at home vs COL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-25	TOR 1 - 4 COL	COL	COL
2026-01-12	COL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	COL
2025-03-19	TOR 2 - 1 COL	TOR	COL
2025-03-08	COL 7 - 4 TOR	COL	COL
2024-02-24	COL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	9	0	0.68
1	COL	17	0	0.88
2	TOR	13	1	1.16
2	COL	23	1	1.38
3	TOR	21	4	2.38
3	COL	17	0	0.96

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 1 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 2.5 - 3.2