Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-03-19 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 1 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 43.9%

COL: 56.1%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.17

COL: 4.35

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TOR at home vs COL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-25	TOR 1 - 4 COL	COL	COL
2026-01-12	COL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	COL
2025-03-19	TOR 2 - 1 COL	TOR	COL
2025-03-08	COL 7 - 4 TOR	COL	COL
2024-02-24	COL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	9	0	0.68
1	COL	17	0	0.88
2	TOR	13	1	1.16
2	COL	23	1	1.38
3	TOR	21	4	2.38
3	COL	17	0	0.96

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 1 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 2.2 - 4.3