Colorado Avalanche at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions
2025-03-20 • Canadian Tire Centre
Ottawa Senators 1 - 5 Colorado Avalanche
🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
OTT: 57.8%
COL: 42.2%
Expected Goals
OTT: 2.86
COL: 3.11
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 61%
Over 6.5: 43%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
OTT
Linus Ullmark - 16-8-5 | 0.884 SV% | 2.86 GAA
COL
Scott Wedgewood - 21-4-5 | 0.913 SV% | 2.29 GAA
| Stat | OTT | COL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.881 | 0.919 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.882 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.935 |
| GAA | 2.95 | 2.13 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • OTT at home vs COL: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-28 | OTT 5 - 2 COL | OTT | OTT |
| 2026-01-08 | COL 8 - 2 OTT | COL | COL |
| 2025-03-20 | OTT 1 - 5 COL | COL | OTT |
| 2024-10-27 | COL 5 - 4 OTT | COL | COL |
| 2024-01-16 | OTT 4 - 7 COL | COL | OTT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10:29 | COL | Goal |
| 1 | 11:28 | COL | Goal |
| 1 | 14:23 | COL | Goal |
| 1 | 17:29 | COL | Goal |
| 2 | 01:54 | COL | Goal |
| 3 | 15:59 | COL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 57.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Ottawa Senators 1 - 5 Colorado Avalanche
Expected: 2.9 - 3.1