Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2025-03-20 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 60.1%

TOR: 39.9%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.40

TOR: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • NYR at home vs TOR: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-25	TOR 4 - 3 NYR	TOR	NYR
2026-03-05	NYR 6 - 2 TOR	NYR	NYR
2025-10-16	TOR 2 - 1 NYR	TOR	NYR
2025-03-20	NYR 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	NYR
2025-02-28	NYR 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	14	0	0.37
1	TOR	17	0	0.64
2	NYR	17	0	0.62
2	TOR	9	1	0.96
3	NYR	14	0	1.14
3	TOR	12	1	0.73

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1