Montreal Canadiens at New York Islanders NHL Predictions
2025-03-20 • UBS Arena
New York Islanders 4 - 3 Montreal Canadiens
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYI: 58.4%
MTL: 41.6%
Expected Goals
NYI: 3.46
MTL: 3.06
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 61%
Over 6.5: 46%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 20-13-2 | 0.916 SV% | 2.44 GAA
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 18-5-4 | 0.892 SV% | 2.96 GAA
| Stat | NYI | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.889 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.930 | 0.903 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | 2.55 | 3.01 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 100% • NYI at home vs MTL: 3-0
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-26 | MTL | ||
| 2025-03-20 | NYI 4 - 3 MTL | NYI | NYI |
| 2024-12-03 | MTL 2 - 1 NYI | MTL | MTL |
| 2024-10-19 | NYI 4 - 3 MTL | NYI | NYI |
| 2024-04-11 | NYI 3 - 2 MTL | NYI | NYI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 05:37 | NYI | Goal |
| 1 | 11:58 | NYI | Goal |
| 2 | 16:40 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 02:31 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 04:32 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 14:16 | NYI | Goal |
| 4 | 03:37 | NYI | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 58.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.5
Score Breakdown
New York Islanders 4 - 3 Montreal Canadiens
Expected: 3.5 - 3.1