Tampa Bay Lightning at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-03-20 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 2 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

DAL: 44.3%

TBL: 55.7%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.06

TBL: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • DAL at home vs TBL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-18	DAL 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-30	TBL 2 - 1 DAL	TBL	TBL
2025-03-20	DAL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-11-23	TBL 2 - 4 DAL	DAL	TBL
2023-12-04	TBL 4 - 0 DAL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	9	2	0.92
1	TBL	17	2	1.33
2	DAL	10	1	1.05
2	TBL	10	2	1.08
3	DAL	10	0	0.28
3	TBL	18	0	0.67
4	DAL	0	0	0.00
4	TBL	4	0	0.28
5	DAL	4	2	1.93
5	TBL	4	3	2.56

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 2 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2