Winnipeg Jets at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions
2025-03-20 • Rogers Place
Edmonton Oilers 3 - 4 Winnipeg Jets
🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
EDM: 61.2%
WPG: 38.8%
Expected Goals
EDM: 3.39
WPG: 2.88
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 59%
Over 6.5: 43%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
EDM
Tristan Jarry - 15-7-2 | 0.890 SV% | 3.18 GAA
WPG
Connor Hellebuyck - 13-16-7 | 0.900 SV% | 2.79 GAA
| Stat | EDM | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.907 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.841 | 0.879 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.880 |
| GAA | 2.73 | 2.51 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 11% • EDM at home vs WPG: 1-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-08 | WPG 3 - 4 EDM | EDM | WPG |
| 2025-12-29 | WPG 1 - 3 EDM | EDM | WPG |
| 2025-12-06 | EDM 6 - 2 WPG | EDM | EDM |
| 2025-04-13 | WPG 1 - 4 EDM | EDM | WPG |
| 2025-03-20 | EDM 3 - 4 WPG | WPG | EDM |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 05:28 | EDM | Goal |
| 1 | 13:39 | EDM | Goal |
| 2 | 05:30 | EDM | Goal |
| 2 | 07:41 | EDM | Goal |
| 3 | 03:56 | WPG | Goal |
| 3 | 14:26 | EDM | Goal |
| 4 | 01:13 | WPG | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 61.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Edmonton Oilers 3 - 4 Winnipeg Jets
Expected: 3.4 - 2.9