Buffalo Sabres at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions

2025-03-20 • Delta Center

Utah Hockey Club 5 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

UTA: 62.7%

BUF: 37.3%

Expected Goals

UTA: 3.38

BUF: 2.73

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

BUF

James Reimer - 10-10-2 | 0.896 SV% | 3.04 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	27	25	2	92.6%	3.68	2	1.68
BUF	James Reimer	32	27	5	84.4%	5.50	7	0.50

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 75% • UTA at home vs BUF: 2-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-12	UTA 5 - 2 BUF	UTA	UTA
2025-11-04	BUF 1 - 2 UTA	UTA	BUF
2025-03-20	UTA 5 - 2 BUF	UTA	UTA
2024-12-07	BUF 2 - 5 UTA	UTA	UTA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	16	2	1.17
1	BUF	18	2	2.02
2	UTA	18	1	1.21
2	BUF	12	0	0.82
3	UTA	21	4	3.12
3	BUF	15	0	0.85

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Utah Hockey Club 5 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.4 - 2.7