Boston Bruins at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-03-20 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 1 Boston Bruins

Win Probability

VGK: 69.8%

BOS: 30.2%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.96

BOS: 2.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	19	18	1	94.7%	1.48	0	0.48
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	32	27	5	84.4%	3.14	0	-1.86

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • VGK at home vs BOS: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-22	BOS 4 - 3 VGK	BOS	VGK
2025-10-16	VGK 6 - 5 BOS	VGK	VGK
2025-03-20	VGK 5 - 1 BOS	VGK	VGK
2025-02-08	BOS 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2024-02-29	BOS 5 - 4 VGK	BOS	BOS

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	VGK	17	0.97
1	BOS	12	0.52
2	VGK	14	1.14
2	BOS	8	0.35
3	VGK	13	1.03
3	BOS	10	0.62

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 69.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 1 Boston Bruins

Expected: 4.0 - 2.1