Philadelphia Flyers at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-03-22 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 45.7%

PHI: 54.3%

Expected Goals

DAL: 2.66

PHI: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 44%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

PHI

Ivan Fedotov - 6-13-4 | 0.880 SV% | 3.15 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	24	22	2	91.7%	2.61	2	0.61
PHI	Ivan Fedotov	19	16	3	84.2%	1.84	1	-1.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 90% • DAL at home vs PHI: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-29	PHI 2 - 1 DAL	PHI	PHI
2025-11-15	DAL 5 - 1 PHI	DAL	DAL
2025-03-22	DAL 3 - 2 PHI	DAL	PHI
2025-01-09	PHI 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-01-18	PHI 5 - 1 DAL	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	5	0	0.16
1	PHI	16	0	0.84
2	DAL	12	1	1.16
2	PHI	9	1	1.01
3	DAL	12	0	0.36
3	PHI	15	1	0.76
4	DAL	1	0	0.15
4	PHI	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.5

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 2.7 - 2.9