Buffalo Sabres at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2025-03-22 • Xcel Energy Center

Minnesota Wild 4 - 1 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

MIN: 47.3%

BUF: 52.7%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.02

BUF: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	21	20	1	95.2%	1.97	0	0.97
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	21	17	4	81.0%	2.82	2	-1.18

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • MIN at home vs BUF: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-06	BUF 3 - 2 MIN	BUF	BUF
2026-01-17	BUF 4 - 5 MIN	MIN	BUF
2025-11-29	MIN 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	MIN
2025-03-22	MIN 4 - 1 BUF	MIN	BUF
2024-11-27	BUF 0 - 1 MIN	MIN	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	10	0	0.58
1	BUF	14	0	1.01
2	MIN	12	1	1.49
2	BUF	11	0	0.40
3	MIN	9	1	0.75
3	BUF	10	0	0.56

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 4 - 1 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1