Calgary Flames at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-03-22 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 3 - 4 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 52.7%

CGY: 47.3%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.16

CGY: 2.94

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 43%

NYI

Marcus Hogberg - 0-0-0 | 0.714 SV% | 8.90 GAA

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Marcus Hogberg	35	31	4	88.6%	2.46	1	-1.54
CGY	Dan Vladar	29	26	3	89.7%	3.59	3	0.59

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYI at home vs CGY: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	NYI 3 - 2 CGY	NYI	NYI
2026-01-17	CGY 4 - 2 NYI	CGY	CGY
2025-03-22	NYI 3 - 4 CGY	CGY	NYI
2024-11-19	CGY 2 - 1 NYI	CGY	CGY
2024-02-10	NYI 2 - 5 CGY	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	19	1	1.68
1	CGY	15	0	0.86
2	NYI	9	1	0.59
2	CGY	20	1	1.17
3	NYI	19	1	1.23
3	CGY	8	0	0.34
4	NYI	3	0	0.10
4	CGY	2	0	0.09

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 3 - 4 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9