Calgary Flames at New York Islanders NHL Predictions
2025-03-22 • UBS Arena
New York Islanders 3 - 4 Calgary Flames
🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYI: 61.3%
CGY: 38.7%
Expected Goals
NYI: 3.07
CGY: 2.85
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 55%
Over 6.5: 40%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 20-13-2 | 0.916 SV% | 2.44 GAA
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 16-21-3 | 0.895 SV% | 3.00 GAA
| Stat | NYI | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.901 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.930 | 0.877 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.933 |
| GAA | 2.55 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • NYI at home vs CGY: 0-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | CGY 4 - 2 NYI | CGY | CGY |
| 2025-03-22 | NYI 3 - 4 CGY | CGY | NYI |
| 2024-11-19 | CGY 2 - 1 NYI | CGY | CGY |
| 2024-02-10 | NYI 2 - 5 CGY | CGY | NYI |
| 2023-11-18 | CGY 4 - 5 NYI | NYI | CGY |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 00:36 | CGY | Goal |
| 1 | 10:46 | NYI | Goal |
| 1 | 17:41 | NYI | Goal |
| 2 | 06:03 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 17:09 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 17:38 | NYI | Goal |
| 4 | 03:53 | CGY | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 61.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 5.9
Score Breakdown
New York Islanders 3 - 4 Calgary Flames
Expected: 3.1 - 2.9