Calgary Flames at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-03-22 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 3 - 4 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 50.8%

CGY: 49.2%

Expected Goals

NYI: 2.92

CGY: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • NYI at home vs CGY: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	NYI 3 - 2 CGY	NYI	NYI
2026-01-17	CGY 4 - 2 NYI	CGY	CGY
2025-03-22	NYI 3 - 4 CGY	CGY	NYI
2024-11-19	CGY 2 - 1 NYI	CGY	NYI
2024-02-10	NYI 2 - 5 CGY	CGY	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	19	1	1.68
1	CGY	15	0	0.86
2	NYI	9	1	0.59
2	CGY	20	1	1.17
3	NYI	19	1	1.23
3	CGY	8	0	0.34
4	NYI	3	0	0.10
4	CGY	2	0	0.09

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 3 - 4 Calgary Flames

Expected: 2.9 - 3.3