Florida Panthers at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions
2025-03-22 • Capital One Arena
Washington Capitals 6 - 3 Florida Panthers
🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WSH: 45.7%
FLA: 54.3%
Expected Goals
WSH: 3.19
FLA: 2.92
Total Goals
Median: 6.3
Over 5.5: 59%
Over 6.5: 41%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WSH
Logan Thompson - 31-21-6 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA
FLA
Sergei Bobrovsky - 27-23-1 | 0.877 SV% | 3.07 GAA
| Stat | WSH | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.888 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.912 | 0.860 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.857 | 0.889 |
| GAA | 2.39 | 2.80 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WSH at home vs FLA: 2-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | WSH 2 - 5 FLA | FLA | WSH |
| 2025-12-29 | FLA 5 - 3 WSH | FLA | FLA |
| 2025-11-13 | FLA 6 - 3 WSH | FLA | FLA |
| 2025-03-22 | WSH 6 - 3 FLA | WSH | FLA |
| 2025-02-04 | WSH 6 - 3 FLA | WSH | FLA |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 03:15 | WSH | Goal |
| 1 | 06:35 | WSH | Goal |
| 1 | 12:24 | WSH | Goal |
| 1 | 13:56 | WSH | Goal |
| 1 | 14:56 | WSH | Goal |
| 1 | 15:27 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 00:07 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 00:59 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 05:57 | WSH | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 54.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Washington Capitals 6 - 3 Florida Panthers
Expected: 3.2 - 2.9
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