Florida Panthers at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-03-22 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 6 - 3 Florida Panthers

Win Probability

WSH: 56.2%

FLA: 43.8%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.81

FLA: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

FLA

Vitek Vanecek - 5-14-4 | 0.884 SV% | 3.62 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	36	33	3	91.7%	3.06	2	0.06
FLA	Vitek Vanecek	33	27	6	81.8%	2.88	1	-3.12

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 71% • WSH at home vs FLA: 4-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	WSH 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	WSH
2025-12-29	FLA 5 - 3 WSH	FLA	FLA
2025-11-13	FLA 6 - 3 WSH	FLA	WSH
2025-03-22	WSH 6 - 3 FLA	WSH	WSH
2025-02-04	WSH 6 - 3 FLA	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	23	0	1.59
1	FLA	16	2	1.28
2	WSH	12	1	0.97
2	FLA	19	0	0.80
3	WSH	12	0	0.32
3	FLA	18	0	0.97

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 6 - 3 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.8 - 3.0