Tampa Bay Lightning at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions

2025-03-22 • Delta Center

Utah Hockey Club 6 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

UTA: 58.8%

TBL: 41.2%

Expected Goals

UTA: 3.14

TBL: 3.23

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 100% • UTA at home vs TBL: 1-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-26	TBL 2 - 0 UTA	TBL	TBL
2025-11-02	UTA 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-03-27	TBL 8 - 0 UTA	TBL	TBL
2025-03-22	UTA 6 - 4 TBL	UTA	UTA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	11	3	1.37
1	TBL	11	2	0.95
2	UTA	8	0	0.64
2	TBL	19	0	1.01
3	UTA	17	3	2.55
3	TBL	16	1	1.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Utah Hockey Club 6 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2