Colorado Avalanche at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-03-22 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 5 Colorado Avalanche

Win Probability

MTL: 36.4%

COL: 63.6%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.60

COL: 3.51

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • MTL at home vs COL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	MTL 7 - 3 COL	MTL	MTL
2025-11-29	COL 7 - 2 MTL	COL	COL
2025-03-22	MTL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-01-04	COL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	COL
2024-03-26	COL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	11	0	0.68
1	COL	20	1	1.50
2	MTL	18	0	1.19
2	COL	14	3	1.56
3	MTL	18	2	1.54
3	COL	15	1	0.78
4	MTL	1	0	0.18
4	COL	9	1	0.99
5	MTL	4	1	1.16
5	COL	4	2	1.73

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 5 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 2.6 - 3.5