Colorado Avalanche at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions
2025-03-22 • Centre Bell
Montreal Canadiens 4 - 5 Colorado Avalanche
🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
MTL: 54.7%
COL: 45.3%
Expected Goals
MTL: 3.38
COL: 3.12
Total Goals
Median: 6.4
Over 5.5: 63%
Over 6.5: 47%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 18-5-4 | 0.892 SV% | 2.96 GAA
COL
Scott Wedgewood - 21-4-5 | 0.913 SV% | 2.29 GAA
| Stat | MTL | COL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.889 | 0.919 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.903 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.846 | 0.750 |
| GAA | 3.01 | 2.13 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • MTL at home vs COL: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-29 | MTL 7 - 3 COL | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-11-29 | COL 7 - 2 MTL | COL | COL |
| 2025-03-22 | MTL 4 - 5 COL | COL | MTL |
| 2025-01-04 | COL 1 - 2 MTL | MTL | COL |
| 2024-03-26 | COL 1 - 2 MTL | MTL | COL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 07:35 | COL | Goal |
| 1 | 10:09 | COL | Goal |
| 2 | 05:24 | COL | Goal |
| 2 | 05:51 | COL | Goal |
| 3 | 03:58 | COL | Goal |
| 3 | 09:24 | COL | Goal |
| 3 | 09:54 | COL | Goal |
| 3 | 13:32 | MTL | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | MTL | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | MTL | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | MTL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 54.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 6.5
Score Breakdown
Montreal Canadiens 4 - 5 Colorado Avalanche
Expected: 3.4 - 3.1