Boston Bruins at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions
2025-03-22 • SAP Center at San Jose
San Jose Sharks 3 - 1 Boston Bruins
🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
SJS: 49.8%
BOS: 50.2%
Expected Goals
SJS: 3.02
BOS: 2.99
Total Goals
Median: 6.3
Over 5.5: 60%
Over 6.5: 46%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
SJS
Alexandar Georgiev - 15-26-4 | 0.875 SV% | 3.71 GAA
BOS
Joonas Korpisalo - 6-8-0 | 0.882 SV% | 3.60 GAA
| Stat | SJS | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.875 | 0.882 |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | 3.71 | 3.60 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | Alexandar Georgiev | 23 | 22 | 1 | 95.7% | 1.78 | 0 | 0.78 |
| BOS | Joonas Korpisalo | 21 | 18 | 3 | 85.7% | 3.49 | 4 | 0.49 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • SJS at home vs BOS: 2-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | SJS 3 - 6 BOS | BOS | BOS |
| 2026-03-12 | BOS 2 - 4 SJS | SJS | BOS |
| 2025-11-23 | SJS 3 - 1 BOS | SJS | SJS |
| 2025-03-22 | SJS 3 - 1 BOS | SJS | BOS |
| 2025-01-20 | BOS 6 - 3 SJS | BOS | BOS |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SJS | 9 | 0 | 0.34 |
| 1 | BOS | 13 | 0 | 0.51 |
| 2 | SJS | 11 | 1 | 1.05 |
| 2 | BOS | 10 | 0 | 0.71 |
| 3 | SJS | 10 | 3 | 2.10 |
| 3 | BOS | 14 | 0 | 0.56 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 50.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 4.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
San Jose Sharks 3 - 1 Boston Bruins
Expected: 3.0 - 3.0
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