Philadelphia Flyers at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2025-03-23 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 7 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Win (64% underdog)

Win Probability

CHI: 36.1%

PHI: 63.9%

Expected Goals

CHI: 2.90

PHI: 3.28

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

CHI

Spencer Knight - 11-11-6 | 0.909 SV% | 2.63 GAA

PHI

Ivan Fedotov - 6-13-4 | 0.880 SV% | 3.15 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	Spencer Knight	29	25	4	86.2%	3.79	4	-0.21
PHI	Ivan Fedotov	29	22	7	75.9%	2.57	1	-4.43

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CHI at home vs PHI: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-26	PHI 5 - 1 CHI	PHI	PHI
2025-12-23	CHI 1 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI
2025-03-23	CHI 7 - 4 PHI	CHI	PHI
2024-11-23	PHI 3 - 2 CHI	PHI	PHI
2024-03-30	PHI 1 - 5 CHI	CHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	12	0	0.74
1	PHI	17	2	1.83
2	CHI	20	1	1.61
2	PHI	15	1	1.07
3	CHI	4	0	0.22
3	PHI	16	1	0.89

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Chicago Blackhawks 7 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 2.9 - 3.3