Buffalo Sabres at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions
2025-03-23 • Canada Life Centre
Winnipeg Jets 3 - 5 Buffalo Sabres
🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WPG: 64.9%
BUF: 35.1%
Expected Goals
WPG: 3.64
BUF: 2.93
Total Goals
Median: 6.5
Over 5.5: 64%
Over 6.5: 50%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WPG
Connor Hellebuyck - 13-16-7 | 0.900 SV% | 2.79 GAA
BUF
Alex Lyon - 14-8-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.72 GAA
| Stat | WPG | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.907 | 0.906 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.879 | 0.934 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | 2.51 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WPG at home vs BUF: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-05 | WPG 4 - 1 BUF | WPG | WPG |
| 2025-12-01 | BUF 5 - 1 WPG | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-03-23 | WPG 3 - 5 BUF | BUF | WPG |
| 2024-12-05 | BUF 2 - 3 WPG | WPG | BUF |
| 2024-03-03 | BUF 2 - 5 WPG | WPG | BUF |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 09:15 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 02:05 | WPG | Goal |
| 2 | 18:46 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 07:13 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 07:41 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 13:21 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 16:32 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 19:13 | BUF | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 64.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.6
Score Breakdown
Winnipeg Jets 3 - 5 Buffalo Sabres
Expected: 3.6 - 2.9