Minnesota Wild at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-03-24 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 0 Minnesota Wild

Win Probability

DAL: 57.3%

MIN: 42.7%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.30

MIN: 2.40

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 42%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	32	32	0	100.0%	2.99	1	2.99
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	29	26	3	89.7%	5.10	4	2.10

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • DAL at home vs MIN: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-30	MIN 5 - 2 DAL	MIN	MIN
2026-04-28	DAL 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	DAL
2026-04-25	MIN 3 - 2 DAL	MIN	DAL
2026-04-22	MIN 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	MIN
2026-04-20	DAL 4 - 2 MIN	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	17	1	1.26
1	MIN	14	0	0.57
2	DAL	22	1	1.74
2	MIN	16	0	1.08
3	DAL	18	2	2.10
3	MIN	23	1	1.34

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 0 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.3 - 2.4