Detroit Red Wings at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions

2025-03-24 • Delta Center

Utah Hockey Club 1 - 5 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)

Win Probability

UTA: 63.7%

DET: 36.3%

Expected Goals

UTA: 3.34

DET: 2.83

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

DET

P. Mrazek

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	14	9	5	64.3%	2.71	3	-2.29
DET	P. Mrazek	19	18	1	94.7%	2.27	1	1.27

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 75% • UTA at home vs DET: 1-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	UTA 4 - 1 DET	UTA	UTA
2025-12-17	DET 1 - 4 UTA	UTA	UTA
2025-03-24	UTA 1 - 5 DET	DET	UTA
2025-03-06	DET 2 - 4 UTA	UTA	UTA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	13	0	0.90
1	DET	4	0	0.26
2	UTA	13	1	0.92
2	DET	6	1	0.69
3	UTA	9	0	0.44
3	DET	12	2	1.76

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Utah Hockey Club 1 - 5 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.3 - 2.8