Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions
2025-03-25 • KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Ottawa Senators
🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 48.0%
OTT: 52.0%
Expected Goals
BUF: 3.14
OTT: 2.73
Total Goals
Median: 5.2
Over 5.5: 40%
Over 6.5: 27%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BUF
Alex Lyon - 20-10-4 | 0.906 SV% | 2.77 GAA
OTT
Linus Ullmark - 28-12-8 | 0.891 SV% | 2.73 GAA
| Stat | BUF | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.881 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.847 | 0.921 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.905 | 0.915 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.95 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • BUF at home vs OTT: 4-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | OTT 4 - 1 BUF | OTT | OTT |
| 2025-12-23 | OTT 2 - 3 BUF | BUF | OTT |
| 2025-10-15 | BUF 8 - 4 OTT | BUF | OTT |
| 2025-04-01 | OTT 2 - 5 BUF | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-03-25 | BUF 3 - 2 OTT | BUF | OTT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:35 | OTT | Goal |
| 1 | 18:31 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 07:39 | OTT | Goal |
| 2 | 12:59 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 01:23 | BUF | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 52.0%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.9
Score Breakdown
Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Ottawa Senators
Expected: 3.1 - 2.7
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