Philadelphia Flyers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-03-25 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 7 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 44.0%

PHI: 56.0%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.84

PHI: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 41%

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	19	17	2	89.5%	2.37	2	0.37
PHI	Samuel Ersson	30	23	7	76.7%	1.95	1	-5.05

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • TOR at home vs PHI: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-02	TOR 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI
2026-01-08	PHI 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	PHI
2025-11-01	PHI 2 - 5 TOR	TOR	TOR
2025-03-25	TOR 7 - 2 PHI	TOR	PHI
2025-01-07	PHI 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	11	0	0.48
1	PHI	6	0	0.18
2	TOR	13	1	0.89
2	PHI	16	0	0.64
3	TOR	9	0	0.58
3	PHI	12	2	1.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 7 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.8 - 3.1