Philadelphia Flyers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-03-25 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 7 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

TOR: 51.3%

PHI: 48.7%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.58

PHI: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TOR at home vs PHI: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-02	TOR 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI
2026-01-08	PHI 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	PHI
2025-11-01	PHI 2 - 5 TOR	TOR	PHI
2025-03-25	TOR 7 - 2 PHI	TOR	TOR
2025-01-07	PHI 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	11	0	0.48
1	PHI	6	0	0.18
2	TOR	13	1	0.89
2	PHI	16	0	0.64
3	TOR	9	0	0.58
3	PHI	12	2	1.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 7 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.6 - 3.1