Dallas Stars at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions
2025-03-26 • Rogers Place
Edmonton Oilers 3 - 4 Dallas Stars
🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
EDM: 64.6%
DAL: 35.4%
Expected Goals
EDM: 3.42
DAL: 2.77
Total Goals
Median: 6.2
Over 5.5: 62%
Over 6.5: 46%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
EDM
Tristan Jarry - 18-9-3 | 0.882 SV% | 3.32 GAA
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 35-12-6 | 0.899 SV% | 2.59 GAA
| Stat | EDM | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.907 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.837 | 0.916 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.820 | 0.912 |
| GAA | 2.73 | 2.57 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • EDM at home vs DAL: 5-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-12 | DAL 7 - 2 EDM | DAL | DAL |
| 2025-11-25 | EDM 3 - 8 DAL | DAL | EDM |
| 2025-11-04 | DAL 4 - 3 EDM | DAL | DAL |
| 2025-05-29 | DAL 3 - 6 EDM | EDM | EDM |
| 2025-05-27 | EDM 4 - 1 DAL | EDM | EDM |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14:26 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 05:01 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 10:42 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 15:30 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 09:30 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 13:54 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 18:35 | DAL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 64.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Edmonton Oilers 3 - 4 Dallas Stars
Expected: 3.4 - 2.8
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