Dallas Stars at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2025-03-26 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 4 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (69% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 68.6%

DAL: 31.4%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.91

DAL: 2.78

Total Goals

Median: 7.0

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 53%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • EDM at home vs DAL: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	DAL 7 - 2 EDM	DAL	DAL
2025-11-25	EDM 3 - 8 DAL	DAL	EDM
2025-11-04	DAL 4 - 3 EDM	DAL	DAL
2025-05-29	DAL 3 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-05-27	EDM 4 - 1 DAL	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	17	1	1.04
1	DAL	10	0	0.42
2	EDM	16	1	1.03
2	DAL	18	0	1.70
3	EDM	31	3	2.88
3	DAL	11	1	1.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 68.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 4 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.9 - 2.8