Dallas Stars at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2025-03-26 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 4 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 64.7%

DAL: 35.3%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.45

DAL: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	24	20	4	83.3%	3.25	1	-0.75
DAL	Jake Oettinger	44	41	3	93.2%	4.94	5	1.94

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • EDM at home vs DAL: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	DAL 7 - 2 EDM	DAL	DAL
2025-11-25	EDM 3 - 8 DAL	DAL	EDM
2025-11-04	DAL 4 - 3 EDM	DAL	DAL
2025-05-29	DAL 3 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-05-27	EDM 4 - 1 DAL	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	17	1	1.04
1	DAL	10	0	0.42
2	EDM	16	1	1.03
2	DAL	18	0	1.70
3	EDM	31	3	2.88
3	DAL	11	1	1.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 4 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.5 - 2.9