Pittsburgh Penguins at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-03-27 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 7 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

BUF: 53.8%

PIT: 46.2%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.31

PIT: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • BUF at home vs PIT: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-05	PIT 1 - 5 BUF	BUF	PIT
2026-02-05	BUF 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-11-26	PIT 4 - 2 BUF	PIT	PIT
2025-03-27	BUF 7 - 3 PIT	BUF	BUF
2025-01-17	BUF 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	14	0	1.07
1	PIT	9	1	0.61
2	BUF	16	0	1.16
2	PIT	15	0	0.72
3	BUF	9	0	0.32
3	PIT	9	1	1.29

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 7 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0