Pittsburgh Penguins at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-03-27 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 7 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 49.5%

PIT: 50.5%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.27

PIT: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 42%

BUF

James Reimer - 10-10-2 | 0.896 SV% | 3.04 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	James Reimer	26	23	3	88.5%	2.62	2	-0.38
PIT	Tristan Jarry	30	23	7	76.7%	2.54	0	-4.46

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BUF at home vs PIT: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-05	PIT 1 - 5 BUF	BUF	PIT
2026-02-05	BUF 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-11-26	PIT 4 - 2 BUF	PIT	PIT
2025-03-27	BUF 7 - 3 PIT	BUF	PIT
2025-01-17	BUF 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	14	0	1.07
1	PIT	9	1	0.61
2	BUF	16	0	1.16
2	PIT	15	0	0.72
3	BUF	9	0	0.32
3	PIT	9	1	1.29

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 7 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0