Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions
2025-03-27 • Little Caesars Arena
Detroit Red Wings 3 - 4 Ottawa Senators
🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
DET: 61.0%
OTT: 39.0%
Expected Goals
DET: 3.22
OTT: 2.95
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 58%
Over 6.5: 41%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
DET
John Gibson - 22-12-2 | 0.904 SV% | 2.62 GAA
OTT
Linus Ullmark - 16-8-5 | 0.884 SV% | 2.86 GAA
| Stat | DET | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.893 | 0.881 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.887 | 0.882 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.898 | — |
| GAA | 2.97 | 2.95 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • DET at home vs OTT: 2-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-26 | OTT | ||
| 2026-01-18 | DET 4 - 3 OTT | DET | DET |
| 2026-01-05 | OTT 3 - 5 DET | DET | OTT |
| 2025-03-27 | DET 3 - 4 OTT | OTT | DET |
| 2025-03-10 | OTT 2 - 1 DET | OTT | OTT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 05:49 | OTT | Goal |
| 1 | 13:01 | OTT | Goal |
| 2 | 01:33 | OTT | Goal |
| 3 | 05:25 | OTT | Goal |
| 3 | 08:44 | OTT | Goal |
| 3 | 11:50 | OTT | Goal |
| 3 | 15:30 | OTT | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 61.0%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Detroit Red Wings 3 - 4 Ottawa Senators
Expected: 3.2 - 3.0