Utah Hockey Club at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-03-27 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 8 - 0 Utah Hockey Club

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 48.8%

UTA: 51.2%

Expected Goals

TBL: 4.09

UTA: 2.74

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 41%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	25	25	0	100.0%	1.62	0	1.62
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	22	14	8	63.6%	2.84	1	-5.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 25% • TBL at home vs UTA: 2-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-26	TBL 2 - 0 UTA	TBL	TBL
2025-11-02	UTA 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	UTA
2025-03-27	TBL 8 - 0 UTA	TBL	UTA
2025-03-22	UTA 6 - 4 TBL	UTA	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	12	1	1.13
1	UTA	9	0	0.25
2	TBL	14	0	1.11
2	UTA	10	0	0.49
3	TBL	9	0	0.59
3	UTA	16	0	0.88

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 8 - 0 Utah Hockey Club

Expected: 4.1 - 2.7