Utah Hockey Club at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2025-03-27 • Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 8 - 0 Utah Hockey Club
🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 44.9%
UTA: 55.1%
Expected Goals
TBL: 4.43
UTA: 2.72
Total Goals
Median: 8.3
Over 5.5: 78%
Over 6.5: 65%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
UTA
Karel Vejmelka - 38-20-3 | 0.897 SV% | 2.73 GAA
| Stat | TBL | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.895 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.919 | 0.878 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 1.000 | 0.907 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.68 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 25% • TBL at home vs UTA: 2-0
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-26 | TBL 2 - 0 UTA | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-11-02 | UTA 2 - 4 TBL | TBL | UTA |
| 2025-03-27 | TBL 8 - 0 UTA | TBL | UTA |
| 2025-03-22 | UTA 6 - 4 TBL | UTA | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:30 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 04:20 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 05:05 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 09:14 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 17:54 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 19:36 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 08:59 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 14:54 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 55.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 7.2
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 8 - 0 Utah Hockey Club
Expected: 4.4 - 2.7
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