Montreal Canadiens at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-03-27 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 6 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

PHI: 55.3%

MTL: 44.7%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.62

MTL: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • PHI at home vs MTL: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	PHI 4 - 2 MTL	PHI	PHI
2025-12-16	MTL 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	MTL
2025-11-04	MTL 4 - 5 PHI	PHI	MTL
2025-04-05	MTL 3 - 2 PHI	MTL	PHI
2025-03-27	PHI 6 - 4 MTL	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	17	0	1.21
1	MTL	14	0	0.71
2	PHI	14	0	0.90
2	MTL	17	0	1.28
3	PHI	19	4	3.40
3	MTL	18	1	1.77

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 6 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.6 - 3.3