Washington Capitals at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2025-03-27 • Xcel Energy Center

Minnesota Wild 4 - 2 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

MIN: 55.9%

WSH: 44.1%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.10

WSH: 2.82

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 41%

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	30	28	2	93.3%	1.79	0	-0.21
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	21	17	4	81.0%	1.74	1	-2.26

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • MIN at home vs WSH: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-16	MIN 5 - 0 WSH	MIN	WSH
2025-10-17	WSH 5 - 1 MIN	WSH	WSH
2025-03-27	MIN 4 - 2 WSH	MIN	MIN
2025-01-02	WSH 3 - 4 MIN	MIN	WSH
2024-01-23	MIN 5 - 3 WSH	MIN	MIN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	9	0	0.51
1	WSH	14	0	0.50
2	MIN	10	0	0.50
2	WSH	21	0	0.72
3	MIN	10	1	0.73
3	WSH	14	0	0.57

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 4 - 2 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.1 - 2.8