Buffalo Sabres at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-03-29 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 7 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

PHI: 59.3%

BUF: 40.7%

Expected Goals

PHI: 4.09

BUF: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 42%

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Samuel Ersson	21	17	4	81.0%	3.22	2	-0.78
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	32	25	7	78.1%	2.68	1	-4.32

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 89% • PHI at home vs BUF: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-14	BUF 5 - 2 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-12-18	BUF 5 - 3 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-12-03	PHI 5 - 2 BUF	PHI	PHI
2025-04-17	BUF 5 - 4 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-03-29	PHI 7 - 4 BUF	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	18	0	1.04
1	BUF	12	0	1.02
2	PHI	12	0	0.54
2	BUF	12	1	1.36
3	PHI	16	1	1.10
3	BUF	11	1	0.84

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 7.2

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 7 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 4.1 - 3.1