New York Islanders at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-03-29 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 3 New York Islanders

Win Probability

TBL: 57.9%

NYI: 42.1%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.59

NYI: 2.74

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

TBL

Jonas Johansson - 9-6-1 | 0.894 SV% | 2.83 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Jonas Johansson	38	35	3	92.1%	5.14	5	2.14
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	24	19	5	79.2%	3.53	3	-1.47

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs NYI: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-13	NYI 3 - 2 TBL	NYI	TBL
2025-12-06	TBL 0 - 2 NYI	NYI	TBL
2025-12-02	NYI 2 - 1 TBL	NYI	NYI
2025-04-01	NYI 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-03-29	TBL 5 - 3 NYI	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	15	1	1.43
1	NYI	18	1	1.25
2	TBL	17	0	0.74
2	NYI	25	4	2.67
3	TBL	6	2	1.36
3	NYI	17	0	1.21

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 3 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.6 - 2.7