Toronto Maple Leafs at Los Angeles Kings NHL Predictions

2025-03-29 • Crypto.com Arena

Los Angeles Kings 1 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

Win Probability

LAK: 63.0%

TOR: 37.0%

Expected Goals

LAK: 3.18

TOR: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

LAK

Darcy Kuemper - 10-7-6 | 0.913 SV% | 2.27 GAA

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
LAK	Darcy Kuemper	26	23	3	88.5%	3.95	4	0.95
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	36	35	1	97.2%	2.43	0	1.43

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • LAK at home vs TOR: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	LAK 7 - 6 TOR	LAK	LAK
2025-11-13	TOR 3 - 4 LAK	LAK	LAK
2025-03-29	LAK 1 - 3 TOR	TOR	LAK
2024-10-16	TOR 6 - 2 LAK	TOR	TOR
2024-01-02	LAK 0 - 3 TOR	TOR	LAK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	LAK	20	0	0.54
1	TOR	19	1	0.97
2	LAK	22	0	1.16
2	TOR	9	1	0.79
3	LAK	15	0	0.72
3	TOR	12	2	2.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Los Angeles Kings 1 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9