Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2025-03-29 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 2 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

EDM: 62.5%

CGY: 37.5%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.44

CGY: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • EDM at home vs CGY: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	CGY 4 - 3 EDM	CGY	EDM
2025-12-27	CGY 3 - 2 EDM	CGY	CGY
2025-12-23	EDM 5 - 1 CGY	EDM	EDM
2025-10-08	EDM 3 - 4 CGY	CGY	EDM
2025-03-29	EDM 3 - 2 CGY	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	12	0	0.84
1	CGY	9	1	0.58
2	EDM	12	0	0.66
2	CGY	16	0	1.17
3	EDM	16	0	0.85
3	CGY	10	0	0.37
4	EDM	1	0	0.08
4	CGY	3	0	0.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 2 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0