New York Rangers at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2025-03-29 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 1 - 6 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

SJS: 56.6%

NYR: 43.4%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.15

NYR: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

SJS

Alexandar Georgiev - 15-26-4 | 0.875 SV% | 3.71 GAA

NYR

Jonathan Quick - 3-6-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.11 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Alexandar Georgiev	33	27	6	81.8%	3.68	2	-2.32
NYR	Jonathan Quick	22	21	1	95.5%	1.94	1	0.94

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • SJS at home vs NYR: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-23	SJS 3 - 1 NYR	SJS	NYR
2025-10-23	NYR 5 - 6 SJS	SJS	NYR
2025-03-29	SJS 1 - 6 NYR	NYR	SJS
2024-11-14	NYR 3 - 2 SJS	NYR	NYR
2024-01-23	SJS 3 - 2 NYR	SJS	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	9	0	0.35
1	NYR	16	0	0.73
2	SJS	14	1	0.98
2	NYR	15	0	0.74
3	SJS	15	0	0.61
3	NYR	16	2	2.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 1 - 6 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2