Montreal Canadiens at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2025-03-30 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 2 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

FLA: 58.6%

MTL: 41.4%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.19

MTL: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • FLA at home vs MTL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	MTL 4 - 3 FLA	MTL	FLA
2026-01-08	MTL 6 - 2 FLA	MTL	FLA
2025-12-30	FLA 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-04-01	MTL 3 - 2 FLA	MTL	FLA
2025-03-30	FLA 2 - 4 MTL	MTL	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	16	0	1.08
1	MTL	15	1	1.41
2	FLA	21	0	0.99
2	MTL	6	0	0.29
3	FLA	10	1	0.76
3	MTL	14	1	1.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 2 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0