Montreal Canadiens at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2025-03-30 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 2 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

FLA: 60.5%

MTL: 39.5%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.30

MTL: 2.49

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 47%

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	23	19	4	82.6%	3.24	2	-0.76
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	26	24	2	92.3%	2.83	1	0.83

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • FLA at home vs MTL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	MTL 4 - 3 FLA	MTL	MTL
2026-01-08	MTL 6 - 2 FLA	MTL	FLA
2025-12-30	FLA 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	FLA
2025-04-01	MTL 3 - 2 FLA	MTL	FLA
2025-03-30	FLA 2 - 4 MTL	MTL	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	16	0	1.08
1	MTL	15	1	1.41
2	FLA	21	0	0.99
2	MTL	6	0	0.29
3	FLA	10	1	0.76
3	MTL	14	1	1.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 2 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.3 - 2.5