Buffalo Sabres at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-03-30 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 5 - 8 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 64.1%

BUF: 35.9%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.50

BUF: 3.42

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • WSH at home vs BUF: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	WSH 6 - 2 BUF	WSH	BUF
2026-03-12	BUF 1 - 2 WSH	WSH	BUF
2025-11-01	BUF 4 - 3 WSH	BUF	BUF
2025-03-30	WSH 5 - 8 BUF	BUF	WSH
2025-01-06	BUF 4 - 3 WSH	BUF	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	14	1	1.34
1	BUF	12	2	1.33
2	WSH	14	0	0.36
2	BUF	13	2	1.41
3	WSH	22	2	1.66
3	BUF	10	1	1.41

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 13.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 5 - 8 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.5 - 3.4