Buffalo Sabres at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions
2025-03-30 • Capital One Arena
Washington Capitals 5 - 8 Buffalo Sabres
🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WSH: 65.2%
BUF: 34.8%
Expected Goals
WSH: 3.70
BUF: 3.24
Total Goals
Median: 6.9
Over 5.5: 67%
Over 6.5: 55%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WSH
Logan Thompson - 20-16-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.41 GAA
BUF
Alex Lyon - 14-8-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.72 GAA
| Stat | WSH | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.906 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.904 | 0.934 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | 2.39 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 86% • WSH at home vs BUF: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-01 | BUF 4 - 3 WSH | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-03-30 | WSH 5 - 8 BUF | BUF | WSH |
| 2025-01-06 | BUF 4 - 3 WSH | BUF | BUF |
| 2024-12-14 | WSH 4 - 2 BUF | WSH | WSH |
| 2024-04-11 | BUF 4 - 2 WSH | BUF | BUF |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12:49 | WSH | Goal |
| 1 | 10:06 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 11:52 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 05:17 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 02:46 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 02:14 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 19:36 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 15:34 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 14:03 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 09:11 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 05:52 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 01:28 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 00:37 | BUF | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 65.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 13.0
Expected: 6.9
Score Breakdown
Washington Capitals 5 - 8 Buffalo Sabres
Expected: 3.7 - 3.2