Toronto Maple Leafs at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2025-03-30 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 2 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

ANA: 59.7%

TOR: 40.3%

Expected Goals

ANA: 3.07

TOR: 2.94

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 51%

Over 6.5: 39%

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	Lukas Dostal	23	20	3	87.0%	2.88	0	-0.12
TOR	Joseph Woll	31	29	2	93.5%	2.89	0	0.89

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • ANA at home vs TOR: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-30	ANA 4 - 5 TOR	TOR	ANA
2026-03-12	TOR 6 - 4 ANA	TOR	TOR
2025-03-30	ANA 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	ANA
2024-12-12	TOR 3 - 2 ANA	TOR	TOR
2024-02-17	TOR 9 - 2 ANA	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	ANA	17	0.94
1	TOR	8	0.48
2	ANA	13	0.70
2	TOR	24	1.44
3	ANA	22	1.26
3	TOR	13	0.96

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Anaheim Ducks 2 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.1 - 2.9